weighing midterms

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weighing midterms

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Polls from the New York Times poll feeds. Prices from the public Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Manifold APIs. Other forecasts from Decision Desk HQ and Split Ticket; ratings from Wikipedia's ratings tables. Models in brms and Stan. Charts drawn by hand, no libraries. Not betting advice. A Cheap Sensationalism piece by Derek DeBellis.

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